The geography of poverty is changing. Extreme poverty is increasingly concentrated in places characterized by fragility and violent conflict: by 2030, 85 percent of the extreme poor—some 342 million people—will live in fragile and conflict-affected states.1 Yet just one in five fragile states are on track to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).2 Meaningful progress on the goal of reducing global extreme poverty requires meeting the development needs of vulnerable populations in fragile contexts; but assistance in these contexts has traditionally been limited to short-term humanitarian aid, ill-equipped to address underlying development challenges. World Bank leadership, staff, and shareholders recognize that protracted crises and associated mass displacement and chronic extreme hunger, as well as threats from sudden-onset emergencies such as climate disasters and pandemics, threaten development progress. Driving progress in these complex environments is the only way that the World Bank will meet its twin goals of reducing global poverty and improving shared prosperity, and address the underlying drivers of some of the world’s most protracted crises.

The three global challenges of climate change, extreme poverty and conflict are converging to form a new epicenter of crisis. But these communities at the epicenter of the climate crisis are being unjustly abandoned by global leaders. Climate-vulnerable, conflict-affected communities contribute the least to climate change, bear its worst impacts, and yet have been consistently left out of the business-as-usual approach to climate action focused on stable settings. COP28 has the opportunity to address the climate injustices facing the most vulnerable communities worldwide—not just fragile states, but specifically climate-vulnerable, conflict-affected countries. Global leaders at the annual climate conference can shift power to the communities at the epicenter of the climate crisis and contribute to the achievement of climate justice by committing to improving risk mapping of conflict-affected communities to target action where it is most needed, investing in innovative adaptation, resilience and anticipatory action designed for conflict settings, adopting a “people-first” approach to delivery through meaningful non-governmental partnerships, and making climate finance more equitable and accessible to adequately resource action.

As the World Bank undergoes an Evolution Process this year to reform its global approach, its ability to deliver on its core mandate will hinge in large part on its effectiveness in fragile and conflict-affected settings. The World Bank should seize the opportunity of the Evolution Process to commit to a people-first, rather than government-first, operating model to meet its ambitions.