The case study showcases the growing role of Anticipatory Action in meeting humanitarian needs, the IRC approach to Anticipatory Action through the “Follow the Forecast” framework, and shares an evaluation of the “Follow the Forecast” approach in Guatemala in 2024. The case study assesses key components for effective anticipatory action responses:  

  • Community-informed, cash-first, partnership-based to support long-term resilience and coalition building for early action before a climate threat 
  • Long-range forecasts and rapid contingency planning backed by open-source data and data validation 
  • A combination of anticipatory cash & early warning messages which proved to be a powerful combination and should be furthered leveraged 
  • Anticipatory Action linked with the broader disaster risk management cycle in addressing a particular climate risk  
  • And flexible and diverse funding mechanisms for a contextually appropriate, agile response 

This evaluation outlines concrete recommendations for potential adaptations of the “Follow the Forecast” framework within and beyond the Guatemala context which can strengthen the overall humanitarian response system and practices overall. 

Available documents & links