• The 20 countries at greatest risk of humanitarian deterioration in 2025 are home to over 82% of those in global humanitarian need.

  • Sudan is now the biggest humanitarian crisis ever recorded, accounting for 10% of all people in humanitarian need globally, while Syria re-enters the top five countries of concern for the first time in several years.

  • Four imbalances explain the global deterioration: hard power overwhelming diplomacy; civilians bearing the brunt of war; the climate crisis adding to humanitarian need; economic inequality adding to the burden.

  • The IRC is calling on the EU and broader international community to make urgent policy changes to rebalance the scales.

Brussels, Belgium, 11 December 2024 —  Today, the International Rescue Committee (IRC) unveils its annual Emergency Watchlist, highlighting the 20 countries most likely to face escalating humanitarian crises in 2025. The top five crises are Sudan, occupied Palestinian territory, Myanmar, Syria and South Sudan. 

Humanitarian need, hunger and displacement have spiralled over the past decade, with 305 million people worldwide in need of humanitarian support. Despite comprising 11% of the global population, Watchlist countries account for 82% of those facing humanitarian needs, 77% of the world’s displaced, and more than 30% of those in extreme poverty.

This year’s Emergency Watchlist speaks to four deep-seated imbalances in the international system which are driving “A World Out of Balance”: more conflict and less diplomacy; more attacks on civilians and fewer consequences; more carbon emissions and less support for people suffering from the climate crisis; more wealth accumulation and less poverty alleviation.

The result is not only the growth of humanitarian needs globally, but also the concentration of these needs in the world’s most fragile contexts. Unless the international community takes urgent action, even more people will be pushed towards disaster.

The IRC is calling on the EU and broader international community to prioritise six key actions:

  1. Reform the humanitarian aid system, using cost efficiency and cost effectiveness tools to drive value for money. For the EU, this includes establishing a new Resilience Fund jointly owned by DGs ECHO and INTPA.
  2. Relieve debt burdens, expand financing and promote economic stability to address crisis drivers and promote shared prosperity. For the EU, this includes speaking with one voice to advance reforms of the Multilateral Development Banks and global financial architecture.
  3. Improve civilian protection by reforming the U.N. Security Council to increase representation, and suspend use of the veto in cases of mass atrocity.
  4. Ease civilian suffering by protecting humanitarian access, ensuring aid can be safely delivered to those in need. For the EU, this includes calling out violations of International Humanitarian Law and holding perpetrators to account.
  5. Invest in climate adaptation and resilience to mitigate the impacts of climate shocks. For the EU, this includes ensuring that ECHO spends at least 5% of its budget on anticipatory action.
  6. Expand safe pathways and assistance for refugees to strengthen protection and inclusion. For the EU, this includes putting the Union Resettlement Framework into action to strengthen this vital lifeline for refugees.

David Miliband, President & CEO of the International Rescue Committee, said:

“It is clear that “the world is on fire” is a daily reality for hundreds of millions of people. This is the result of a world fundamentally out of balance. As a humanitarian agency, IRC’s job is to meet needs, but also call them out. This is the purpose of the Emergency Watchlist published today. 

“The concentration of extreme poverty is remarkable. The world is being cleaved into two camps: between those born in unstable conflict states, and those with a chance to make it in stable states. This is a trend that needs to be addressed for moral and strategic reasons. The moral case is that with more resources than ever before, they need to be used to help the world's most vulnerable. The strategic case is that problems that start in Sudan or Syria do not stay there: instability spreads.

“Business as usual will not reverse this trend. Civilians will continue to suffer the worst impacts of burgeoning conflict and risk perilous journeys if we don’t break with the status quo. The international community has both an incredible opportunity and responsibility to change the terms of humanitarian and diplomatic engagement in Watchlist countries. And while the challenges in these countries are complex, the IRC’s experience shows that there are ways to save lives, build resilience, and preserve the livelihoods of the most vulnerable.”

Harlem Désir, Senior Vice President, Europe, of the International Rescue Committee, added:

“To date, the EU has set the gold standard on humanitarian and development action in fragile and conflict-affected states. As the world’s largest donor of development aid, it has supported millions of people to survive, adapt and thrive. However, we are seeing a worrying shift towards a more transactional approach, which will result in a greater focus on building partnerships with more stable emerging economies rather than the least developed, more fragile countries. This risks leaving fragile states, such as those on this year’s Emergency Watchlist, trailing even further behind.

As the EU focuses on enhancing its ability to preserve peace, prevent conflicts, strengthen international security, and support the Sustainable Development Goals, any shift away from addressing fragility and instability would undo years of hard-won progress. With humanitarian crises spiraling, and concentrating in an increasingly small number of states, the EU must urgently reconsider its direction of travel. We urge European policymakers to act now to revive their commitments to the world’s most vulnerable - not only to demonstrate leadership on the world stage, but that it upholds its own fundamental values.”

Learn more in the IRC’s report Raise the Bar: A blueprint for EU leadership in a world of escalating crises.

Notes to Editors:

For the past decade, The IRC’s Emergency Watchlist report has helped the IRC determine where to focus our emergency preparedness efforts, successfully predicting on average 85-95% of the 20 countries facing the worst deteriorations. It is also where we share our analysis of how global humanitarian crisis is evolving, why, and what can be done to reduce the impact on affected communities. 

IRC’s 2025 Emergency Watchlist At A Glance

Ranked Top 10

  1. Sudan
  2. occupied Palestinian territory (oPt)
  3. Myanmar
  4. Syria
  5. South Sudan
  6. Lebanon
  7. Burkina Faso
  8. Haiti
  9. Mali
  10. Somalia

Unranked Second Half

Now the largest humanitarian crisis ever recorded, the largest displacement crisis in the world, and heading towards one of the world’s worst famines in decades, Sudan is at the top of the Emergency Watchlist for the second year running. The country’s collapse is accelerating as a brutal civil war, fueled by outside powers, devastates the lives of civilians. Far from working towards a diplomatic resolution, leaders of both factions seem to believe that continued fighting best serves their interests, putting Sudan on course for devastating humanitarian collapse in 2025.

The occupied Palestinian territoryremains second on the Watchlist after more than a year of conflict that has devastated Gaza and significantly worsened conditions in the West Bank. There is no safe place in Gaza: over 1 in 50 people in Gaza have been killed since October 2023, and without a lasting ceasefire and restrictions on imports being eased, casualties will increase and there will be a risk of famine in 2025.

Third on the list, Myanmar has seen armed groups unite and advance rapidly across the country, causing nearly 900,000 people to flee their homes - a 37% increase from 2023. The balance tilts firmly towards more war this year. Cholera and other diseases threaten to overwhelm Myanmar’s health system, which has been decimated by conflict. Flooding, and other climate-induced disasters mean that the country’s ability to cope with additional needs will be pushed to the brink in the year ahead.

Syria re-enters the Emergency Watchlist’s top five for the first time since 2021 after nonstate armed groups launched a surprise offensive in late 2024, triggering a rapid collapse of government forces. As Watchlist goes to print, the situation is highly uncertain. Whether the latest shifts in the conflict will allow Syrians to start rebuilding their lives in 2025 or deepen the crisis remains an open question.

Ripple effects from the conflict in Sudan exposes South Sudan to a growing economic crisis, while the arrival of over 878,000 people fleeing Sudan’s war adds to the challenges facing the country. The delivery of humanitarian aid is treacherous, with at least 28 attacks on aid workers over the course of 2024 highlighting the reality that South Sudan is one of the most dangerous places for aid workers. This will make efforts to respond to the deepening crisis even more treacherous in 2025.